PTEM Labs

About

About PTEM Labs

PTEM Labs builds governed structural measurement instruments for catastrophe risk systems.

We track how organized the basin becomes and deliver audited artifacts—activation receipts, manifests, canonical spines—instead of forecast feeds.

PTEM originated from a systems-analysis discipline rather than a traditional meteorological pathway. Training in activity analysis emphasizes decomposing complex behavior into observable temporal structure and identifying when coherent organization emerges or breaks down.

PTEM measures structural coherence, persistence, and regime formation directly from time-series observations under strict forward-only constraints. The instrument tracks how organized a system becomes over time, independent of intensity or environmental proxies.

This produces a governed structural measurement layer that identifies regime transitions as internal organization consolidates, rather than modeling outcomes or forecasting intensity.

What PTEM Labs is

PTEM is intentionally operated as an instrument, not a bespoke model. Freeze control, forward-only scoring, and explicit change management keep the engine within a reproducible envelope while manifests and receipts document every release.

Atlantic hurricanes are the proving ground: PTEM is validated on the frozen Atlantic v1.2 structural spine (1851–2024), a record spanning more than 170 years, aligned to a 6-hour cadence, and shipped with the governance notes required for independent review.

Validation & governance

Canonical runs follow pre-declared activation rules recorded in run manifests and validation receipts. Sweeps shown in /validation are illustrative only—they do not tune or select operating points, and every public material is derived from frozen artifacts so institutions can replay PTEM scoring.

Two co-equal horizons

  • Event scale: activation episodes, regime entry, and episode behavior captured under forward-only discipline with audited outputs.
  • Climatology scale: Structural Regime Index (SRI v1) structural density, drift, and clustering plus the Structural Regime Signals (SRS v1) capital surface and SRS Derived Views v1 (year-level only, non-invertible aggregates backed by canonical freezes and robustness receipts).

Climatology surfaces are immutable artifacts, not forecast feeds. They operate on many-to-one aggregates so storm-level structure, operator logic, and readiness signals remain private.

What we focus on

  • Maintaining a freeze-controlled Atlantic structural record with reproducible manifests and receipts
  • Rendering activation episodes into audited structural artifacts rather than exposing raw live feeds
  • Applying governance gates, suppression logic, and change-control on every engine increment
  • Delivering a single governed SDK surface for structural access instead of bespoke integrations

The work is intentionally narrow: provide structural context, validation packs, and a governed delivery model so capital teams can inspect organization-driven risk without replatforming.

Who we serve

  • Re/insurers & capital managers needing governed structural context alongside intensity guidance
  • Model risk & validation teams requiring an external, reproducible dataset for independent challenge
  • Risk/control leaders who need audit-ready artifacts for regulators, boards, and governance forums
  • Public programs & research teams that benchmark climatology-scale structural density without exposing storm-level IP