Product

Structural Regime Measurement Instrument

PTEM is a governed structural regime measurement instrument for tropical cyclone risk.

It measures rare high-organization regimes inside storms and tracks how those regimes persist and cluster across decades.

It delivers immutable structural artifacts (manifests, receipts, freeze tags), not forecast feeds.

Atlantic hurricanes are the proving ground: every engine release is validated on the frozen Atlantic v1.2 structural spine (1851–2024) with documented governance notes so institutions can reproduce PTEM scoring across declared operating points.

Canonical Atlantic structural spine freeze stamp: freeze-2026-01-27.

Cross-basin portability (EPAC v1.2)

PTEM has been replayed as a second fully frozen structural spine in the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) using the identical forward-only pipeline and governance rules. EPAC is used as an independent transfer diagnostic: cross-threshold and diagonal (era + basin) tests quantify how regime occupancy and persistence behave when calibration rules are transferred across basins and eras—without modifying the instrument.

This converts portability from a claim into a measurable property of the instrument.

Two Co-Equal Horizons

Event Scale

Activation episodes, lead distributions, lifecycle regime transitions

Forward-only activation sequences recorded at a 6-hour cadence
Episode behavior summaries (stability, morphology, gating) frozen with receipt hashes
Per-advisory manifests documenting activation rules, suppression gates, and audit notes

Climatology Scale

Structural Regime Index (SRI v1) structural climatology (year-level)

Canonical percentile rule (p95) with rolling 15-year baseline and top-k selection
Robustness metadata (percentile depth × baseline memory) embedded in receipts
Immutable manifest bundle with SHA256 hashes; no storm-level sequences exposed

Year-level Structural Regime Index (SRI v1) outputs are exposed separately from storm-level sequences. Structural Regime Signals (SRS v1) extend the climatology horizon with capital-surface signal packs derived directly from the canonical SRI freeze, and SRS Derived Views v1 (year-level only; non-invertible) adds analyst-facing derived-by-year diagnostics (e.g., RDI/CSS labels) generated solely from the SRS payload.

What you get

PTEM consists of three governed components that map directly to the access tiers described on the Pricing page.

Frozen structural record (Atlantic v1.2, 1851–2024)

The Atlantic v1.2 frozen structural spine (1851–2024), 6-hour aligned and versioned for reproducible validation, research, and integration pilots.

Governed event-scale structural sequences

Storm-level structural snapshots and readiness channels delivered through the SDK so teams can:

Retrieve structural snapshots for any advisory in the frozen dataset
Analyze readiness regimes and precursor patterns
Perform event-aligned regime analysis and scenario reviews

For pilot engagements, PTEM can optionally run structural snapshots on current storms by mutual agreement, without implying a full operational live feed.

Canonical climatology layer (SRI v1 + SRS v1 + SRS Derived Views v1)

SRI v1 is the year-level structural climatology instrument, governed under a predeclared canonical rule with robustness characterization and an immutable freeze bundle (MANIFEST + hashes). Structural Regime Signals (SRS v1) provide the capital-surface layer: a synthetic, non-invertible year-level signal pack derived directly from the canonical SRI freeze with MANIFEST/FREEZE_META governance. SRS Derived Views v1 (optional, year-level only; non-invertible) adds analyst-facing derived_by_year diagnostics (e.g., RDI/CSS labels) generated strictly from SYNTH_SIGNALS.json so storm-level traces remain non-invertible.

Enterprise SDK

The SDK is a delivery surface, not the PTEM instrument itself.

The sole integration surface for PTEM signals, providing:

Authentication and organizational access control
Replay-safe retrieval of structural snapshots and channels
Convenient access to governed structural metrics and readiness channels (e.g., structural coherence indices, composite readiness scores)
Built-in provenance, versioning, and governance metadata

The SDK exposes year-level SRI outputs separately from storm-level sequences to preserve exposure boundaries and prevent reverse inference.

Example

Governed replay surface: retrieval of a frozen structural snapshot from the canonical dataset with provenance metadata.

from ptem import PTEMClient

client = PTEMClient.from_env()

# Historical structural snapshot
snapshot = client.snapshots.get(
    storm_id="al152025",
    dtg="2024-08-30T12:00:00Z",
)

print({
    "dataset_freeze_tag": snapshot.dataset_freeze_tag,
    "engine_version": snapshot.engine_version,
    "receipt_sha256": snapshot.receipt_sha256,
    "activation_flag": snapshot.activation_flag,
    "episode_id": snapshot.episode_id,
    "hc_ops": snapshot.hc_ops,
})

channel = client.channels.get(
    storm_id="al152025",
    channel="struct_readiness",
    dtg="2024-08-30T12:00:00Z",
)

print({
    "channel_version": channel.version,
    "activation_flag": channel.activation_flag,
})

Hypothetical example schema: this governed replay surfaces ops-safe fields only (dataset freeze tag, engine version, receipt hash, activation flag, episode identifier, structural coherence sample, and the associated channel version) so exposure boundaries stay intact. The actual schema remains versioned, immutably documented, and governed inside the SDK documentation.

What PTEM measures

PTEM quantifies structural organization — how internally coherent a storm is — rather than intensity alone. Structural readiness matters because storms with similar intensities often behave differently depending on their internal structure.

PTEM’s metrics provide:

Lead-time context before intensity changes materialize
Regime identification for operational triage and research
Structural baselines for scenario modeling and model comparison
Audit-ready signals tied to a frozen validation harness

These signals complement, rather than replace, existing hazard or physics models.

Validation & governance

All PTEM model releases are validated against a frozen multi-decadal Atlantic harness (1851–2024) with:

Forward-only scoring for reproducibility
Per-lead and per-regime diagnostics
Versioned validation notes for every engine revision
Governance gates and suppressions to prevent uncontrolled drift

Enterprise clients receive structured audit packs suitable for CROs, regulators, and modeling leads.

Who PTEM is for

PTEM supports institutions that require governed structural visibility into storm evolution:

Reinsurers & carriers — portfolio stress testing, event triage, scenario evaluation
Public programs — structural readiness insights for planning and communication
Modeling teams — add structural context to hazard or ML pipelines
Research groups — benchmark against frozen structural baselines

Access tiers

PTEM access is licensed through structured enterprise tiers. See the Pricing page for details on evaluation access (frozen dataset + SDK), internal-signal tiers, and governed operational feed options.